The nowcast
What AMC will report, from box office you can already see.
You cannot trade the box office. US law bans contracts for future delivery of motion-picture receipts on any board of trade — box office and onions, the two things Congress specifically outlawed. The instrument you canhold is the exhibitor, and roughly a quarter of the domestic box office lands on AMC's income statement weeks before AMC says so. That gap is the whole point of this page.
Get the full record →- 2026Q2 — our call
- $1,610.9M $1,555.9M–$1,665.8M
- AMC reported
- $1,596.7M 2026Q2, in the 8-K
- We were off by
- +0.9% on total revenue
- Analyst consensus was off by
- -7.9% $1,470.0M
- Walk-forward record
- 33 quarters, 3.5% mean-abs error
What that row actually says. Before AMC reported 2026Q2 we published $1,610.9M and called it a beat against a consensus of $1,470.0M at 97% confidence. AMC reported $1,596.7M. The consensus was -7.9% away from that; we were +0.9%. One quarter is an anecdote, which is why the whole record is below rather than this number on its own. Consensus source: Analyst consensus (Zacks $1.48B / Benzinga $1.46B); midpoint ~$1.47B. Reported figure: AMC Entertainment press release 2026-07-20 (8-K, SEC EDGAR CIK 1411579).
The next call is 2026Q3, and it is not made yet. AMC reports it in November 2026. The quarter has to close before the box office that drives it is complete — our own feed under-folds an in-flight quarter until film runs finish, so a live mid-quarter number would be a different and weaker claim than the one this page makes. We would rather show you nothing than show you that.
The record — every quarter, ours against the baseline
Walk-forward, and that word is load-bearing. US + International both = share*box_office (admissions) + attendance*fnb_per_patron + other; trailing dials, no lookahead. US off domestic box office; International off Odeon's European footprint (UK/DE/IT/ES). Ratio gross-up only when footprint missing. Every dial is TRAILING — calibrated only on quarters already reported — so no row below peeked at the quarter it was predicting. The baseline column is the obvious alternative: gross US revenue up by the trailing US-to-total ratio instead of modelling international from European box office. We beat it on 9 of 33 graded quarters. Era: 2014-2026 ex-COVID (2020-21) & ex-2017 acquisition transition.
| Quarter | US box office | We said | AMC reported | Our miss | Baseline miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q1 | $1.734B | $1,030.5M | $1,045.4M | -1.4% | -0.6% |
| 2025Q4 | $2.189B | $1,241.4M | $1,288.3M | -3.6% | -4.6% |
| 2025Q3 | $2.370B | $1,295.5M | $1,300.2M | -0.4% | -2.4% |
| 2025Q2 | $2.674B | $1,380.6M | $1,397.9M | -1.2% | -0.4% |
| 2025Q1 | $1.423B | $846.0M | $862.5M | -1.9% | -6.3% |
| 2024Q4 | $2.350B | $1,330.9M | $1,306.4M | +1.9% | +2.0% |
| 2024Q3 | $2.665B | $1,436.7M | $1,348.8M | +6.5% | +12.6% |
| 2024Q2 | $1.947B | $1,029.2M | $1,030.6M | -0.1% | -1.5% |
| 2024Q1 | $1.609B | $920.0M | $951.4M | -3.3% | -5.7% |
| 2023Q4 | $1.857B | $1,030.5M | $1,104.4M | -6.7% | -8.4% |
| 2023Q3 | $2.650B | $1,443.8M | $1,405.9M | +2.7% | +0.1% |
| 2023Q2 | $2.678B | $1,365.7M | $1,347.9M | +1.3% | +3.6% |
| 2023Q1 | $1.722B | $967.8M | $954.4M | +1.4% | +1.4% |
| 2022Q4 | $1.775B | $942.2M | $990.9M | -4.9% | -4.9% |
| 2022Q3 | $1.924B | $1,049.3M | $968.4M | +8.4% | +8.4% |
| 2022Q2 | $2.326B | $1,358.7M | $1,166.4M | +16.5% | +16.5% |
| 2019Q4 | $2.889B | $1,421.5M | $1,447.7M | -1.8% | -1.8% |
| 2019Q3 | $2.813B | $1,346.2M | $1,316.8M | +2.2% | +2.2% |
| 2019Q2 | $3.262B | $1,428.6M | $1,506.1M | -5.1% | -5.1% |
| 2019Q1 | $2.400B | $1,154.6M | $1,200.4M | -3.8% | -3.8% |
| 2018Q4 | $2.951B | $1,464.9M | $1,413.3M | +3.6% | +3.6% |
| 2018Q3 | $2.735B | $1,294.0M | $1,221.4M | +5.9% | +5.9% |
| 2018Q2 | $3.347B | $1,488.2M | $1,442.5M | +3.2% | +3.2% |
| 2018Q1 | $2.858B | $1,233.7M | $1,383.6M | -10.8% | -10.8% |
| 2016Q3 | $2.979B | $806.1M | $779.8M | +3.4% | +3.4% |
| 2016Q2 | $2.804B | $757.0M | $764.0M | -0.9% | -0.9% |
| 2016Q1 | $2.784B | $738.0M | $766.0M | -3.7% | -3.7% |
| 2015Q4 | $2.911B | $777.4M | $783.9M | -0.8% | -0.8% |
| 2015Q3 | $2.652B | $698.3M | $688.8M | +1.4% | +1.4% |
| 2015Q2 | $3.111B | $822.1M | $821.1M | +0.1% | +0.1% |
| 2015Q1 | $2.475B | $649.3M | $653.1M | -0.6% | -0.6% |
| 2014Q4 | $2.627B | $671.3M | $712.2M | -5.7% | -5.7% |
| 2014Q3 | $2.505B | $641.5M | $633.9M | +1.2% | +1.2% |
- US segment error
- 2.8% mean absolute, 33 quarters
- Total revenue error
- 3.5% vs 4% for the baseline
- Since segment reporting
- 2.6% over 12 quarters
Where this is weakest, in the model's own words. Dials trailing. US share ~22.9% of US+Canada box office (=~24% US-only, AMC's CEO figure). International modelled from European box office halves total error vs the old ratio gross-up. Our feed validates totals (coverage[]) but model rides sourced totals.
What it is not.This is a revenue estimate, not a price target and not advice. Revenue is one line of an income statement; AMC's share price answers to debt, dilution and a good deal else besides. We are telling you what the box office implies about one number, weeks early, and showing you our record of doing it.